So When Does the Energy Price Shock Finally Hit Europe?

Electricity bills became the defining image of the 2022 European energy crisis. French bakeries, British pubs, German shops — all took to social media to post pictures of their eye-watering invoices. The energy turmoil of 2026 is different. Despite the oil shock from the Iran war, Europe’s electricity markets are calm.

The French market, at the epicenter of the 2022 electricity convulsion, stands out. Its benchmark one-year-forward power contract is changing hands at about €50 ($58.60) per megawatt hour, roughly the same as before the war and a fraction of the all-time high set in August 2022 of €1,130 per MWh.