The LNG Shock Isn’t Driving Asia Back to Coal
The sun won’t shine on coal. Photo: CFOTO/Future Publishing/Getty Images
If you’re given to the Sickos Guy view of world events, there’s one obvious way to make the current crisis in the Middle East look just that little bit more disastrous: As well as starving us of energy in the short term, in the long run it’s also going to drive Asia to use more of the dirtiest fuel, coal.
That’s not what’s going to happen. Any shift to burn more coal in 2026 will be short-lived, and overwhelmed by more quotidian factors, such as the weather. Unlike in Europe and North America, where gas is a dominant fuel on the grid, Asia is already far more dependent on coal, so the loss of import LNG won't move the needle much. Europe’s much-touted return to coal in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine turned out to be a squib. Asia’s won’t be any different.