Christopher Smart, Columnist

Investors, There’s No China Trade Deal You’re Going to Like

Even if modest progress is made, the relationship won’t revert to the way it was.

December 2, 2019 at 12:00 AM UTC

Christopher Smart is managing partner of Arbroath Group, a geopolitical advisory firm. He is a former special assistant to the president in the Barack Obama administration, and a former chief global strategist for Barings LLC.

The anticipation is too much. — The anticipation is too much.
Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

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Investors are betting that President Donald Trump will deliver a partial trade deal with China soon, boosting anemic economic growth, sustaining the bull market in stocks and offering the hope of calmer waters for global commerce.

But careful what you wish for. What looks like a step forward may actually be a step back. The prospect of a so-called phase one deal, even if it sticks through next year’s tumultuous presidential election campaign, may make a broader phase two agreement even harder.