China-U.S. Rivalry Is the Big Threat to Any Climate Pact
A coal stockpile site in Taicang, China, on Oct. 23. Coal futures in China extended a decline to more than 20% in three days as authorities continue to take action to tackle the nation’s energy crisis.
Photographer: Qilai Shen/BloombergOn climate change, the U.S. and China are shaping up as competitors—as they are in just about every other sphere, from artificial intelligence to biotech and space.
Will they race each other to the top, or the bottom? A crucial question hanging over next week’s COP26 meeting in Glasgow, Scotland, is whether rivalry between the world’s two biggest polluters, responsible for 40% of global emissions, ends up accelerating global action to save the planet from climate catastrophe—or stalling progress. Then there’s the worst case, where their inability to work together becomes a climate suicide pact.
During the years of U.S. President Barack Obama years, deft U.S. diplomacy with China got the 2015 Paris Agreement over the line. That was quite a turnaround from the United Nations talks in Copenhagen, Denmark, in 2009, when China derailed an ambitious climate deal. Things got so heated that China’s chief climate negotiator, Xie Zhenhua, yelled at Obama to “get out” after he entered a conference room where then-Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao was meeting officials from South Africa, India and Brazil.
Alas, the atmosphere surrounding the COP26 talks is looking more like Copenhagen than Paris.