What to Watch in the US Economy’s First GDP Report of 2026

Investment in AI has been a key driver of business spending over the past year.

Photographer: Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg

The US economy is poised to become more reliant on spending by the government and businesses for growth in 2026 as inflation driven by the Iran war hits consumers.

A report Thursday is expected to show that dynamic was already developing in the first three months of the year, even before the impact of the war really kicked in. Gross domestic product probably advanced at a 2.3% annualized pace in the first quarter, while consumer spending was likely up just 1.4%, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.