Most Prediction Market Traders Are Losing Money While Bots Rack Up Gains
Data from millions of accounts shows that trading and profits are dominated by a tiny slice of highly active accounts.
Prediction markets are being touted on social media as a lucrative side hustle for young Americans squeezed by rent and student loan bills. In reality, most traders are losing money, and a significant amount in many cases.
Over 100,000 accounts lost at least $1,000 on Polymarket, one of the largest prediction markets, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of every wallet active since the beginning of 2025. That is almost twice the number that made at least that much.