Bank of England Hit by 5% Inflation Risk From War in Iran

Inflation could rise to more than double the BOE’s 2% target if the latest jump in oil and gas prices is maintained, according to estimates.
Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

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By Tom Rees and Philip Aldrick

March 9, 2026 at 10:21 AM UTC

Updated on

March 9, 2026 at 6:19 PM UTC

The Bank of England faces the prospect of UK inflation rebounding to as high as 5%, with traders ramping up bets on a reversal of recent cuts to interest rates.

Inflation could rise to more than double the BOE’s 2% target if the latest jump in oil and gas prices is maintained, according to estimates from ING and RSM UK on Monday.