Why the UK’s Plan to Stop Migrants Depends on Rwanda

The UK has developed a novel solution to the migration pressures facing many developed nations: Send asylum-seekers to Africa. The plan — first floated by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson in April 2022 — was to immediately deport migrants who arrive on British shores without permission some 4,000 miles (6,440 kilometers) to Rwanda. Almost two years later, the UK has yet to fly a single migrant to the central African nation, having been rejected in a string of legal defeats. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has staked his political future on a vow to get the plan done.

Like countries across Europe, the UK has experienced a surge in asylum-seekers fleeing conflict and economic turmoil in Asia and Africa. About 46,000 people arrived in the UK last year by crossing the English Channel in dangerous small boats, largely from neighboring France. More than 70% of those who arrived since 2018 were nationals of five countries — Iran, Syria, Albania, Iraq and Afghanistan — according to an analysis by the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory. Almost nine in 10 have ultimately gone on to secure asylum under rights guaranteed by a network of laws and international agreements, including the UK Human Rights Act, the European Convention on Human Rights and the Refugee Convention.