US Election Risk Is Starting to Build in Global Currency Markets

  • Volatility rising as ‘24 presidential election cycle nears
  • Euro, peso, yen volatility spreads reaching multiyear highs

A voter fills out a ballot in Ames, Iowa. 

Photographer: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
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With less than a year to go, currency traders are beginning to bet on greater volatility around the Nov. 5 US presidential election.

Year-ahead pricing in foreign-exchange volatility markets has begun to pick up relative to shorter-dated tenors now that next year’s election has swung into view, currency strategists at Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. cautioned clients in recent notes.