The SVB Collapse Threatens an Already Fragile Economy

When the Federal Reserve is raising rates, an unexpected shock can trigger a recession.

Illustration: 731

Take a tour through US recessions of the past 50 years, and it’s hard not to wonder whether Silicon Valley Bank will turn out to be the banana peel that upends an already unsteady economy.

When the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, as it is now, recession is always a risk. And slumps tend to come suddenly after an unexpected shock deals a blow to confidence during a particularly vulnerable time.