The Durable Goods Spending Boom Is Heading for a Slowdown

Even before they emerged from the Covid-19 lockdowns of spring 2020, American consumers began buying lots of tangible, durable things—initially home office equipment but soon also appliances, furniture, televisions, cars, trucks, motorboats, recreational vehicles, and even books. There’s been something of a pullback recently, caused in part by supply constraints at automakers, but real consumer spending on durable goods was still running 21% above pre-pandemic levels in August, the most recent month for which data are available.

A key characteristic of durable goods is that they’re, well, durable. They don’t need to be replaced every month or year. Such a sharp acceleration in the pace of purchases, especially in the face of a long-running economic shift toward services and away from goods, is clearly not something that can continue indefinitely.