Zimbabwe’s Rulers Find Themselves in a Trap of Their Own Making

Zimbabwe’s rulers are finding that two decades of economic mismanagement and brutal repression have led them into a trap from which there’s little chance of escape. If they implement the political and democratic reforms needed to win the financial support the economy needs from international donors, they’re likely to lose the next election. If they don’t, their people, propelled by the extreme hardship brought about by austerity measures imposed by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, may remove them through an uprising. Already a currency devaluation has slashed the value of wages by 90% in six months.

That dilemma was manifest on Aug. 16 in full view of journalists and tourists watching from the terrace of the best-known hotel in the capital, Harare. Below, a crowd of about 200 demonstrators peacefully singing in protest was violently broken up by riot police, who left a woman lying unconscious in the middle of a major intersection. Less than an hour earlier, a court had ruled the gathering illegal. “The desperation of most Zimbabweans means that future sustained protest movements are likely,” says Mathias Hindar, an analyst in London at Falanx Assynt, a risk consulting firm. “Continued brutal crackdowns will thus increase the risk of Zimbabwe reaching a tipping point, similar to movements in Sudan and Algeria, where sustained protest brought down entrenched regimes.”