Merkel Has the Edge in September’s German Elections

Shortly after Angela Merkel launched her campaign for a fourth term last winter, the German chancellor appeared to be running out of steam. Her open-door policy toward refugees—1.3 million of whom have arrived in the country since 2015—was driving some voters into the arms of the far-right nationalist Alternative for Germany party. On the left, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) was reinvigorated by the arrival of Martin Schulz, a former president of the European Parliament in Brussels who barnstormed the country to enthusiastic crowds seeking a fresh face. And with Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, and the wave of populism sweeping the globe, Merkel was looking increasingly isolated at home and abroad. After a February meeting of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party in Munich, where Merkel appeared exhausted and miserable, the German press erupted in speculation that she lacked the energy to lead her party to victory.

Today, Merkel is back in form, reinforcing her image as an island of stability between President Vladimir Putin’s Russia and an unpredictable Trump. The German economy is humming, the flow of refugees has slowed, and on May 14 the CDU surged ahead of the Social Democrats to take power in Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia. That victory, in Schulz’s home state, long an industrial stronghold for the Social Democrats, followed wins for the CDU in two other state elections since March.