MSCI Bounce for Saudi Shares May Happen Sooner Than You Think
- Winning emerging-market status ‘is when the work starts’
- U.A.E., Qatar saw foreign inflows, but reduced liquidity
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If history is any guide, Saudi Arabian stocks will benefit from being included in MSCI Inc.’s emerging-market index in the months before the promotion, not after.
Saudi equity investors can expect returns of about 20 percent in each of the years leading up to the upgrade and in the year of the event, and then a decline of 12 percent in the following 12 months, according to data collected by EFG-Hermes Holding. The investment bank studied the fortunes of markets that gained emerging status at MSCI from 1993 to 2014, including the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. While foreign investor inflows will increase, that may not translate to higher liquidity.