The Waiting Room Is About to Get Crowded

Newly insured patients will exacerbate a shortage of doctors

Dr. David Kim is ready for the next phase of Obamacare. In January he opened a new office of MemorialCare Medical Group in a former Borders bookstore in Long Beach, Calif. He started out with six doctors; now there are 16. The hiring spree is in anticipation of a rush of new patients starting in early 2014, when more pieces of the 2010 health-care law take effect. “We’ve hired so many doctors in such a short period of time, we have the capacity to take on quite a bit,” says Kim, a family practitioner. “The last thing we want is to expand our practice and then have people waiting for appointments.”

Kim’s preparations are a rarity. The U.S. already has a doctor shortage, even as the medical needs of its aging population rise. The problem is about to worsen, with 25 million uninsured Americans expected to get health coverage through the Affordable Care Act by 2016, based on projections from the Congressional Budget Office. About half that number will gain access through changes in eligibility rules for Medicaid, the state-run insurance program for the poor.