Will Japan Be a Nuclear-Free Zone?

For months now, Japan has been shutting down its 54 nuclear reactors for routine maintenance and safety checks. At the current rate, the country will have no nuclear-generated power as of May, not long after the first anniversary of the tsunami that caused a meltdown at Tokyo Electric Power’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi station. The plan is to restart the reactors once their ability to withstand severe shocks, including earthquakes and tsunamis, is proven. The question is whether ordinary Japanese and local governments will block the central authorities from firing up the reactors ever again.

The country now has just three operating reactors, after one more was idled on Jan. 27. According to an NHK television poll in November, nearly 70 percent of Japanese want to reduce or end the use of nuclear power. In this atmosphere, the fact that Japan will be free of nuclear power within three months could have a “psychological” effect, says Yuji Nishiyama, an analyst with Credit Suisse Group. “If we experience a zero-nuclear situation, the argument that we don’t need nuclear power anymore will be stronger. But at the moment we cannot live without nuclear power. We may not need 50 reactors, but we do need about 10 or 20.”